2014–2022年深圳市流行性感冒流行趋势和特征分析

doi:10.19871/j.cnki.xfcrbzz.2024.01.005

新发传染病电子杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (1): 21-25.doi: 10.19871/j.cnki.xfcrbzz.2024.01.005

2014–2022年深圳市流行性感冒流行趋势和特征分析

陈志高¹, 欧蔚辉², 程雁鹏¹, 陈霓璇¹, 刘婷婷¹, 宋丽霞¹, 李莹莹¹, 张振¹

1.深圳市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,广东深圳 518055;
2.广东省东源县疾病预防控制中心应急与传染病预防控制科,广东河源 517500

收稿日期:2023-11-10 出版日期:2024-02-28 发布日期:2024-03-25
通讯作者: 张振,Email：zhangzhen@wjw.sz.gov.cn
基金资助:
1.深圳市医学重点学科（公共卫生重点专科）(SZXK064); 2.深圳市医疗卫生三名工程项目（SZSM202011008）

Analysis of the prevalence trend and characteristics of influenza in Shenzhen, 2014–2022

Chen Zhigao^1,*, Ou Weihui^2,*, Cheng Yanpeng¹, Chen Nixuan¹, Liu Tinting¹, Song Lixia¹, Li Yingying¹, Zhang Zhen¹

1. Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Shenzhen 518055, China;
2. Department of Emergency and Infectious Disease Prevention, Dongyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Heyuan 517500, China

Received:2023-11-10 Online:2024-02-28 Published:2024-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析深圳市2014–2022年流行性感冒流行规律,研究流行性感冒流行期内特征,为制定流行性感冒综合防控措施提供依据。方法根据深圳市统计局公布的年末常住人口数计算2014年第36周至2022年第35周每周全人群流行性感冒发病率,使用移动流行区间法分析深圳市流行性感冒流行规律,应用流行病学方法对流行期内流行性感冒流行强度和人群特征开展研究。结果深圳市2014–2022年共8个监测周期中有6个出现流行性感冒流行期,主要呈现冬春季和夏季流行规律,峰值发病率呈逐年上升趋势（χ²_趋势=28 958.392,P<0.001）。各区流行强度超过流行期阈值累计周数存在差异（χ²=100.634,P<0.001）。6个出现流行期的监测周期中,南山区均最早进入流行期,且有5个监测周期流行持续时间最长。14岁以下儿童为主要发病人群（占比69.5%）,其中以学生和托幼儿童为主。结论深圳市流行性感冒流行规律呈明显季节性,且呈现一定的区域性差异,南山区最早进入流行期且持续时间往往较长。后续应结合气候变化、病原学变化、疫苗接种以及人口流动规律等综合因素深入分析。

关键词: 流行性感冒, 季节性, 流行强度, 特征分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic law of influenza virus in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2022,study the epidemiological characteristics of influenza virus during the epidemic period, and provide the basis for formulating the comprehensive prevention and control measures of influenza. Method According to the number of permanent residents at the end of the year published by Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of statistics, the weekly influenza incidence rate of the whole population from 36th week of 2014 to the 35th week of 2022 was calculated. The epidemic law of influenza virus in Shenzhen was analyzed by using the moving epidemic method, and the epidemic intensity and population characteristics of influenza virus during the epidemic period were studied by using the epidemiological. Result Six of the eight surveillance cycles in Shenzhen 2014-2022 entered the influenza virus epidemic period, mainly in winter, spring and summer, the peak incidence rate showed an increasing trend year by year (χ²_trend=28 958.392, P<0.001). There were differences in the cumulative weeks of epidemic intensity exceeding the threshold of epidemic period in each district(χ²=100.634,P<0.001), Among the six monitoring cycles with epidemic periods, Nanshan District was the first enter the epidemic period, and the epidemic duration was longest in five monitoring cycles. Children under 14 years old were the main population(accounting for 69.5%),mainly students and nursery children. Conclusion The epidemic law of influenza virus in Shenzhen is obviously seasonal, and presents certain regional differences. Nanshan District enter the epidemic period first and the duration is often longer. In the follow-up, comprehensive and in-depth analysis should be made in combination with climate change, pathogenic changes, vaccination and population flow rules.

Key words: Influenza, Seasonality, Epidemic intensity, Characteristics analysis

中图分类号:

R183

陈志高, 欧蔚辉, 程雁鹏, 陈霓璇, 刘婷婷, 宋丽霞, 李莹莹, 张振. 2014–2022年深圳市流行性感冒流行趋势和特征分析[J]. 新发传染病电子杂志, 2024, 9(1): 21-25.

Chen Zhigao, Ou Weihui, Cheng Yanpeng, Chen Nixuan, Liu Tinting, Song Lixia, Li Yingying, Zhang Zhen. Analysis of the prevalence trend and characteristics of influenza in Shenzhen, 2014–2022[J]. Electronic Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2024, 9(1): 21-25.

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2014–2022年深圳市流行性感冒流行趋势和特征分析

Analysis of the prevalence trend and characteristics of influenza in Shenzhen, 2014–2022

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