Abstract: Objective The predictive value of inflammatory indexes on disease staging and adverse outcomes during short-term hospitalization（within 30 days） for COVID-19. Method A total of 168 patients admitted to the Chengdu Public Health Clinical Medical Center from December 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and 142 patients who improved and were discharged as the good prognosis group and 26 patients who were transferred to the ICU or died as the poor prognosis group according to the patients, prognosis survival, and the two groups were compared for white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocyte count (LYM), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT); logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of hospitalization in patients with novel coronavirus infection, and the subject operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn. Result ①WBC [(7.60±4.66)×10⁹/L vs (4.99±2.41)×10⁹/L)], IL-6 [38.20(17.03, 68.50)pg/ml vs 8.60(4.78,16.03)pg/ml], CRP[34.21(12.43,93.19)mg/L vs 2.98(2.98,16.45)mg/L], PCT[0.40(0.10,1.70)ng/ml vs 0.06(0.04,0.10)ng/ml] were higher than those in the good prognosis group (P<0.05), and LYM [(0.77±0.38)×10⁹/L vs (1.13±0.54)×10⁹/L)] were lower than those in the good prognosis group (P<0.05)．The results of multi-factorial logistic regression model analysis showed that elevated CRP was an independent risk factor for the development of novel coronavirus infection associated with poor prognosis, while the uncomplicated underlying disease and mild disease groups were independent protective factors for novel coronavirus infection. The ROC curve analysis showed that high CRP, combined underlying disease, and the severe disease group had a better predictive value for risk assessment of patients with novel coronavirus infection developing to poor prognosis compared with other risk factors. When CRP was higher than 13.765mg/L, the sensitivity for determining poor prognosis was 76.90%, the specificity was 73.90%, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.757 (95% CI 0.638-0.876, P<0.001); AUC for combined underlying disease was 0.654 (95% CI: 0.552-0.756, P=0.013); and AUC in the severe disease group was 0.716 (95% CI: 0.605-0.827, P<0.001). When the three were combined for diagnosis, the sensitivity was 84.60%, the specificity 70.40%, and AUC was 0.850 (95% CI: 0.772-0.929, P<0.001). Conclusion Elevated inflammatory indicators, especially high levels of CRP, combined underlying disease and severe disease groups can be used as early warning indicators of deterioration during hospitalization in patients with the novel coronavirus infection, and the combined diagnostic efficacy of the three is higher.

Key words: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Inflammatory index, Short-term prognosis, Diagnostic efficacy